64 Tweets That Show Why The Middle East Is Doomed
Wars and political upheavals over the past years do not bode well for the future of the Middle East.
Some observers may argue it is virtually impossible to speculate how the region's future will unfold considering its history of unexpected developments.
However, the below arguments and facts comprise compelling evidence that indeed the Middle East is bound to be doomed at some point in the future.
Share TweetThe future of the Middle East is anything but promising. There are many reasons to think the region is on the brink of a total collapse
2-The seeds of the #Viciouscircle that the Mideast region finds itself in today were planted at least 5 decades ago. Excessive public spending without matching revenues were the catalyst to a faulty & dangerous incentive system that helped to balloon populations beyond control
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 21, 2018
4-Successive Mideast leaders are often referred to as evil dictators. I see them more as lousy economists and poor users of simple arithmetic and excel spreadsheets that can help demonstrate the simple, yet devastating power of compounding
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 21, 2018
6-Important to note that excessive population growth is not the issue here. Japan & many parts of Europe are suffering from too little population growth. The problem in Arab societies is lack of productivity stemming from weak private sector & overburdened bankrupt public sector
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 21, 2018
8-The Arab World's problem is that it suffers from shockingly low levels of "productivity". This may seem like a fancy word but the concept encapsulates everything that Arab economies and societies suffer from
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 21, 2018
10-Why is the size of the public sector coupled w excessive subsidies the problem? Because what starts as the noble cause of helping the poor ends up masking the true costs of raising family size. Governments soon go broke. Services suffer. Anger rises. We know the drill now
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 21, 2018
12-Growing up in Syria, I can still recall the "Family Booklet". The more dependents you had on that booklet, the more was your allocation of subsidized rice, sugar, tea, edible oil, etc. Your home electricity was also subsidized. So was your diesel. Schooling? Free all the way
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 21, 2018
14-Without having to pay full price for bread, sugar, electricity, tea, fuel or education (all the way to college) and with the State becoming by far the largest employer (job guaranteed), the Syrian population doubled every 22 years. Imagine the pressures on the State coffers
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 21, 2018
16-Not only Syrians never asked how their state could meet those obligations while they doubled every 22 years but the State itself never explained. It is debatable that the State was even aware of the power of compounding and what that does in the outer years (50 years ahead)
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 21, 2018
18- As the state could not increase salaries with inflation, real wages & standards of living suffered. Even Mother Teresa would have had to accept a bribe if she had 5 kids and a salary of $150 a month. Corruption is an inevitable by-product of a broken system.
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 21, 2018
20-In the end, Governments that start off by offering more than they can sustainably afford in the long run, end up being criticized and even toppled for seemingly not providing enough to a population that grew beyond that capacity of the system to handle
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 21, 2018
22-Without sustainable tax base, it's unlikely lenders will be willing to fund governments unless the latter are asked to pay unsustainably high interest rates. Similarly, printing money will soon lead to debasing the currency & rampant inflation. What about Collecting taxes?
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 22, 2018
24-Growing up in #Syria , avoiding taxes was akin to breathing. It had to be done. Often times, tax rates were impossibly high (top marginal rate was once over 70%). Not paying taxes is not just the fault of citizens but also Govts who need to accurately calibrate those rates
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 22, 2018
26-As spending increased with rise of the population,Govt investment in schools, hospitals, roads, municipal services, civil servant salaries & human capital suffered and even froze.The public had the right to complain but the public did't want to know how govt was funding itself
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 22, 2018
28-On my trip to Syria few months ago, young gentleman at my hotel explained to me how he was finding it hard to resist the pressure from his extended family and friends to stop at 5 kids. His father had 11. His brothers had 8-9. Having only 5 himself was insulting to his manhood
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 23, 2018
30-Even by 2005-2010, #Syria 's population growth rate was still in the top 10 in the world at 3.26%. It also had one of the world's youngest populations with a median age of only 15.4 years (only 4.8% was over the age of 60).These statistics are from UN'S World Population tables
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 23, 2018
32-By 2007, complacency set in. Mubarak also started pushing back against international NGO's administrating the programs. Once he was overthrown & Mursi came in, all contraceptions were banned. Before long, growth rate was back up to 2.55% taking country's population near 100mm
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 24, 2018
34-Syrian Gov was either not fully aware of the unfolding dynamic or that it was aware but it found it politically difficult to embark on a serious family planning program. Was the religious minority status of the leadership a factor & how would the religious establishment react?
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 24, 2018
36-Many have blamed current Syrian Leadership for a long list of governance shortfalls. No one (included Assad himself) can claim otherwise. What this long thread tried to highlight is that at least empirically speaking, Bashar Assad inherited a near impossible situation
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 24, 2018
38-Older members of my family still refer to the period between 1970 and 1976 as Syria’s golden period. Merchants saw their businesses boom as foreign trade was relaxed and the corrective movement quickly became seen as a tilt to the right from an earlier ultra leftist leaning
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 24, 2018
40-Merely 6 years after taking over, sporadic assassinations became widespread. Syrians would later find out their Govt was at war with the Moslem Brotherhood culminating in Hama. This 6 year battle between Islamists & Damascus left its mark in Syria’s DNA ever since
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 24, 2018
42-Between 1982 and the year 2000 when Bashar took over, Syrian Leadership spent most of its energies making sure the Islamist and Ikhwan would never see the day of light again. Being charged with belonging to MB received the death sentence by law
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 24, 2018
44-Fast forward to 2000 when current President Assad takes over. Yes, expectations & hopes are high both domestically & internationally. A very young population now has one of theirs. He studied abroad. He was surely going to reverse direction both politically & economically
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 24, 2018
46-Economically speaking, there was now talk about allowing foreign banks and even starting a stock market. Economic reforms of this type were always going to produce winners & losers. Those w capital made it big. They now owned banks, insurance co’s & hotels. And the losers? ==>
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 24, 2018
48-The state never implemented family planning campaign (how would Islamists have reacted to Alawi President trying to reduce the numbers of the majority?). The state also never communicated to the public that course country was on was arithmetically untenable. Clock kept ticking
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 24, 2018
50-Corruption thrives in heavily bureaucratic centralized systems where civil servants suffer from frozen salaries and inflation rates that eats away at their real purchasing power. Without supplemental income, employees at all levels of the state apparatus will hardly survive
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 24, 2018
52-For corruption at this level to be addressed, level of public spending & liabilities have to fall dramatically. Size of Govt has to be smaller. Public sector has to slim down.Those left can now receive proper wages. Taxes must all get collected as State gets handle on finances
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 24, 2018
54-Rami Makhlouf seems to have turned into the lightening rod for every Syrian whose purchasing power or standard of living fell behind. While its impossible not to appreciate the reasons behind this widespread public sentiment at the time, a little bit of math helps here ==>
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 24, 2018
56-No one ought to dismiss the negative effects of high level corruption at the high end. Appearance & optics matter tremendously & Rami’s case is a perfect microcosm of that. But,had Rami not been around, it would make very little difference to the broader issue at hand
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 25, 2018
58-What about political reforms that were expected after Assad’s arrival in 2000? This was classic case of high expectations clashing with reality on the ground & the system as a whole. What was seen as needed “reforms” to some was viewed as dangerous slippery slope by others
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 25, 2018
60-Assad May not have anticipated the Tsunami early but by the summer & end of 2011, he made up his mind. This was going to be a fight till the end where losing was not an option. There would be no panic but he would stop at nothing till he ensures victory.
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 25, 2018
62-When & if Syria’s war is over, a new chapter & contract must start. The private sector must become the engine of growth. Regulations must be streamlined. Taxes must be cut to level low enough to ensure respectable collection rate. One final idea =>
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 25, 2018
64-If & when the economy finds its footing, critical that women labor participation rises from the abysmal rates in the region. Studies conclusively show that increased women participation in the labor force is the single biggest factor behind population growth control. End
— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) March 25, 2018
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